th This book is published to commemorate the 50 Anniversary of the S.S. Huebner Foundation for Insurance Education. Administered at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, the Huebner Foundation was established in 1941 to strengthen insurance education at the collegiate level by increasing the number of professors specializing in insurance and enriching the literature in the field. The financial support of leading life insurance companies has enabled the Foundation to provide post-graduate education for prospective insurance teachers and scholars. Through its fellowship program, the Foundation supports students in the Ph.D. program in Risk and Insurance at the Wharton School. The success of the Foundation is measured by the accomplishments of its alumni. Former Huebner Fellows play leading roles in every major area of insurance education. Fellows teach insurance to tens of thousands of undergraduate and MBA students each year and have written hundreds of books and thousands of articles on insurance. Fellows hold leadership positions at the American College, the Life Office Management Association, and the Certified Employee Benefit Specialist Program. The Foundation was created in honor of Dr. Solomon S. Huebner, a pioneer in insurance education. Dr. Huebner taught the first organized course on the economics of insurance ever offered at the collegiate level in 1904. An internationally recognized author and teacher, Dr. Huebner had a profound impact on both insurance education and the insurance industry. He served on the faculty of the Wharton School for more than nearly fifty years.

Few modem events have aroused more controversy than the Spanish Civil War. This controversy was especially acute in Great Britain, which was tom between its distrust of Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy on the one hand and of Communist Russia on the other. The and determined to avoid war at British public, pacifist in sentiment almost any cost, sensed the danger implicit in the Civil War, yet realised its impotence to control events in Spain which indeed it little understood. The British Government, though under heavy attack from the Opposition and from a handful of its own supporters, succeeded in its endeavours to keep the country out of war on this occasion. The neutrality of Spain, even after Mussolini had entered World War II, was of inestimable value to Britain after the debacle in the summer of I940. It may be therefore that British policy during the Civil War paid off later on as well as achieving its purpose at the time. Dr. Kleine's book, lucidly written and carefully documented, ex­ amines the British attitude toward the Spanish Civil War. The author has the advantage of belonging to a generation which is able to analyse these events with historical detachment. Yet his understanding and easy style have made the period live. Neutrality was not easy for Britain. Its far-reaching interests in trading with Spain and in passage through Iberian waters again and again raised awkward problems.

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"Halley's Comet has been prominently displayed in many newspapers during the last few months. For the first time in 76 years it appeared this winter, the nocturnal sky. This is an appropriate occasion to clearly visible against point out the fact that Sir Edmund Halley also constructed the world's first life table in 1693, thus creating the scientific foundation of life insurance. Halley's life table and its successors were viewed as deterministic laws, i. e. the number of deaths in any given group and year was considered to be a well defined number that could be calculated by means of a life table. However, in reality this number is random. Thus any mathematical treatment of life insurance will have to rely more and more on probability theory. By sponsoring this monograph the Swiss Association of Actuaries wishes to support the ""modern"" probabilistic view of life contingencies. We are fortu­ nate that Professor Gerber, an internationally renowned expert, has assumed the task of writing the monograph. We thank the Springer-Verlag and hope that this monograph will be the first in a successful series of actuarial texts. Zurich, March 1986 Hans Biihlmann President Swiss Association of Actuaries Preface Two major developments have influenced the environment of actuarial math­ ematics. One is the arrival of powerful and affordable computers; the once important problem of numerical calculation has become almost trivial in many instances."

This book covers available approaches to improving the performance and impact of long-term projections of the national energy sector development. In turn, it introduces an original multi-stage approach to narrowing down the uncertainty range of the input data and resulting projections. Its unique contribution is that it limits the scope for each of the projection timeframe segments step-by-step. This is done in the course of iterative calculations, which employ dedicated methods and other tools to elucidate and solve top-priority problems specific to each time segment. In closing, the book provides a detailed treatment of two essential research problems: 1) long-term forecasting for regional energy markets, and 2) the quantitative assessment of a) the barriers that are likely to hinder energy sector development and b) strategic-level energy security threats.

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